Next Season Forecast: Is La Nina Coming Back?
The dreaded El Nino weather patterns, bringing endless thoughts of pineapples and gore-tex waterproofing – have been staples for the last two seasons out West. With “above average temps and precipitations”, these winters have brought some great snow with them, but have also brought rain and “mashed potato” powder to coastal and western operations. But as spring approaches, the speculations are firing towards 2017. Next season could mark the return of La Nina, which brings colder than average temperatures and a large amount of snowfall (as seen and previously experienced in the powder-filled season of 2011). So let’s take a minute to see what the experts have to say about this whole show: Are we really in an El Nino season, and is it likely that the lady of winter will soon be back with a vengeance?
First of all, What is El Nino? “El Nino and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds. These changes disrupt the large-scale air movements in the tropics, triggering a cascade of global side effects.” The impact that this makes on the United States and Canada for the rest of the current season is the following: “there is an increased chance that February-April 2016 will be wetter than usual across the southern tier of the United States, and drier than usual over the northern tier. Above-average temperatures are favored in the North and West, and below-average temperatures are favored in the southern portions.”
Weather patterns and data show that we are currently in an El Nino winter, and the prediction is that this trend will start to phase out as we move into the spring and summer. NOAA states that currently, “El Nino conditions are present”. This means that the “positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies still continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.” However, NOAA also states that “A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Nina conditions during the fall”. El Nino has been quite generous with us this year, delivering almost 450cm of fresh fallen snow between February 1st and March 12 at our two lodges.
With forecasters whispering La Nina in our ears, we have high hopes that next season will be cold and filled with storm after storm of fluffy, champagne powder. And with this exciting new weather prospect on the horizon for next season, the crew at Last Frontier Heliskiing will also be introducing smaller groups of 4. So call up your 3 best friends and figure out which dates you want to get away to the mountains – La Nina is coming back, and it looks as if her fiery (and by fiery, I mean cold temps and butt-loads of light snow) storms will be here sooner than you think.
